Early warning signals of recovery in complex systems

An early warning on early warning systems!

Early warning signals in plant disease outbreaks

Correspondence Sirio Orozco-Fuentes Email: [email protected] Summary 1. Infectious disease outbreaks in plants threaten ecosystems, agricultural crops and food trade. Currently, several fungal diseases are affecting forests worldwide, posing a major risk to tree species, habitats and consequently ecosystem decay. Prediction and control of disease spread are difficult, mainly ...

Early warning signals of stochastic switching.

The development of statistical signals for anticipating changes of state ('regime shifts') is an active area of research in ecology [1,2], earth and atmospheric science [3], and biology [4,5]. Causes of regime shifts include noise-induced transitions [6], discontinuities in the underlying dynamics [7], stochastic fluctuations dominated by low frequencies [8], stochastic switching between basins...

WG Early Warning Systems

Early Warning Systems aim at detecting unclassified but potentially harmful system behavior based on preliminary indications and are complementary to Intrusion Detection Systems. Both kinds of systems try to detect, identify and react before possible damage occurs and contribute to an integrated and aggregated situation report (big picture). A particular emphasis of Early Warning Systems is to ...

Early warning signals and the prosecutor's fallacy.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of na...